You Can Wonderlic My Balls Capi-tan

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Alert the media! Tim Tebow scored!

...a 22 on the Wonderlic test (out of 50). Just kidding, the media already knows. The scores were leaked via Tweet by Edgar Thompson, a Dolphins beat writer with the Palm Beach Post, and now everybody knows. It seems to be a big deal for a people associated with the NFL Draft. Much was made of Vince Young scoring a 6 in 2005. Even last year, a red flag was raised when Percy Harvin scored a 12. Maybe that is how he chose his jersey number. Incidentally, both players managed to win Rookie of the Year honors. I guess it really only begs one question:

Does the Wonderlic test matter?

I personally don't think so. But in order to get a little perspective, I decided to sample the test. I found two different abbreviated versions of the test online. I scored a 39 on the version ESPN posted on Page 2 a few years ago. I also scored a 45 on this other one I found. Obviously, the results I got were not official in any capacity, or even valid. Nonetheless, it is cool to know that I would make a great NFL player. I mean, that is what my scores mean, right?

The Wonderlic test is given to millions of job applicants each year in professions outside of professional sports. It aims to quantify general mental ability, which is in a sense, the ability to learn. 20 is the average score, which indicates an IQ of 100. The average score for a chemist is 32, and 15 for a warehouse worker (21 for the average NFL player). That makes sense. Chemists are required to be more educated than warehouse workers to perform the functions of their given occupations. I understand why employers test applicants. Intelligence is a good indicator of occupational success in many fields, but mainly because physical attributes play such a small role in most professions. So why does the NFL administer the Wonderlic test when the main criteria for success is physical ability?

Although they have found some trends regarding players positions as they relate to scores, there has been no significant link between a high score and a successful career, or vice versa. Just for fun, here are the average scores by position:

(note: If I was Jemelle Hill, I would probably decry the racism inherent in the testing, but that is a different conversation altogether.) 

Offensive Tackle: 26

Center: 25 

Quarterback: 24

Guard: 23

Tight end: 22

Safety: 19

Middle Linebacker: 19

Cornerback: 18

Wide Reciever: 17

Fullback: 17

Runningback: 16

If there was a position that required a higher Wonderlic score I imagine it would be quarterback. They are required to read defenses, make decisions quickly and adjust on the fly. It is unquestionably the most involved position to play in any sport. Here are some notable scores by quarterbacks:

Ryan Fitzpatrick: 48- Harvard graduate. Finished in 9 minutes. Career backup.

Alex Smith: 40- Biggest QB bust of the decade. 

Eli Manning: 39- Can also lick Oreos faster than his big brother can. 

Matt Leinart: 35- Impressive, considering he was probably drunk.

Tom Brady: 33- *sigh* I guess thats why New England drafted him.

John Beck: 30- *sigh* I guess that's why Miami drafted him.

Brady Quinn: 29- May be a bust, but too early still.

Drew Brees: 28- Best QB in the league. Solid score

Peyton Manning: 28- Best QB in the league. Solid score.

Ryan Leaf: 27- I thought he was dumb. Nope. Just crazy.

Brett Favre: 22- Let's hope Tebow can mimic his career too.

Vince Young: 16- But he got a 6 on his first try. No joke.

Dan Marino: 15- More of a doer, than a thinker.

Terry Bradshaw: 15- "Couldn't spell C-A-T if you spotted him the C and T."

Donovan McNabb: 14- Yet he still manages to avoid INTs.

Jeff George: 10- "A score of 10 is literacy." -C. Wonderlic Jr.

Chris Leak: 8- answered 8 of 12 questions correctly then said "Fuck this. I'm out."

Obviously if Wonderlic scores were indicators of NFL success, Fitzpatrick and Smith would replace Favre and Marino in the Hall of Fame. But as you can plainly see, Wonderlic scores are no better of a predictor of NFL success than the 40-yard dash (Jerry Rice ran a 4.71, Emmitt Smith ran a 4.8). In my estimation, only 10% of the information gathered from all the the cone drills, sprint drills, and aptitude tests actually help measure future success. The reason scouts force players to go through all of the rigmarole is so in the end when the players that they drafted fail, scouts can use these scores as a crutch. When they draft a bust, nobody can say they didn't do their due diligence. 

This year's marquee quarterbacks:

Sam Bradford: 36

Colt McCoy: 25

Jimmy Clausen: 23

Tim Tebow: 22

Let's see how this plays out.

*****

Fun Wonderlic Fact: Frank Gore (who graduated from my high school a year ahead of me) scored a 6. He's Dyslexic. Literally. No pun intended. He took a verbal test later on and scored higher. (That is only the second time in my life when I actually meant it when I said "no pun intended." Practically every time someone says "no pun intended" they do so because they went out of their way to make a pun. Fuckers.)

Before you go, watch this remembering these words Todd McShay uttered less than a month ago: "[Tebow] will not make it in the NFL; I'm sure of it."

The Draft

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It seems that everybody and their mothers are dissecting, analyzing, and prognosticating Tim Tebow's draft prospects. Enough people have put their two cents in that Timmy could fill his abortion jar 100 times over. But I digress. They have a million questions about Tebow, and are trying desperately to answer them before the end of the month. Will he be able to fix his throwing motion? Is he going to be another Alex Smith? Is he going to play tight end? With all the question marks surrounding him, it's a wonder how he managed to help the Gators win 48 games (35 as a starter), win two BCS National Titles, and capture a Heisman Trophy. With all that success, he has become a polarizing figure. It is safe to say that there has never been a more captivating college athlete. I guess that explains all the questions.

The NFL has become a machine. It is America's most popular sport, and far and away its most successful professional league. With the help of ESPN (and assholes like me who never change the channel), The NFL has become a year-round event. The day after the Super Bowl, pundits were already ranking teams for 2010, evaluating off-season personnel needs*, and speculating on free agent signings. The crown jewel for the NFL off-season is The Draft. With the draft comes the pre-draft meat market some refer to as "The NFL Combine."

* I realize that this image is not relevant in any way, but I stumbled upon it while Googling "2010 NFL Draft." She is hot. That is enough reason for me.

The combine takes place every spring about a month before the draft. The point of it is to quantify the things we think we know, thus guaranteeing that the Raiders will draft a big, strong, fast player who is incapable of actually playing football. My favorite part about the combine is how "experts" use the results of the drills to reinforce what they previously believed, or refute what they thought they knew after watching a player week in and week out on the field every Saturday for four years. It is a fantastic waste of money. But then again, it is the NFL, and they print their own money there. (You like that Brady Dollar? I just did that myself on the fly. I'm a fucking internet stallion. Boom!). The thing that gets me about the draft is that I can't think of a situation in the real world where past accomplishments are thrown out the window, and scored from completely unrelated tasks are the standard. How is this line of thinking valid, or acceptable?

Interviewer: "...Let's look at your work experience. It says here you were a high school janit-

Wannabe Employee: "Custodian...I was a custodian."

Interviewer: "Ok. Custodian. And you were the assistant to the regional manager at McDonald's."

Wannabe Employee:   "Something like that."

Interviewer: "Thanks for your interest. I think I have seen enough."

Wannabe Employee: "Check me out. I can juggle."

Interviewer: "...enough to know that you are management material. Welcome to the company!"

Now here is Tim Tebow. All he has done the last four years is give everything he has for Gator Nation. He has gotten excellent (at times historic) results. Anyone you ask gives glowing reports about Tebow the man, the teammate, the competitor, and the winner. Then you have Todd McShay's assessment: "[Tebow] will not make it in the NFL; I'm sure of it." I feel it necessary to point out that McShay also gave a glowing endorsement of JaMarcus Russell. Idiot.

Unfortunately for Tebow, the NFL is full of sheep, and they will continue banking on Ryan Leafs and pass up players like Tebow, that don't fit the NFL mold because that is just the way things are done. I hope Tebow steps right in, lights up the league and wins multiple Super Bowls. Partly because I am a Gator fan, but mostly because I hate everybody. And everybody includes all those "experts" out there who don't know shit, yet think their word is absolute truth. 

Jukebox Heroes

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With the 2009 NFL season coming to an end, I wanted to creatively recap the season. Imagine the NFL was a giant Jukebox. Here are the songs I chose that represent the state of each team this season, as well as moving forward. Away we go.

Arizona Cardinals- "The Times They Are A-Changin'" by Bob Dylan- For the loser now will be later to win, the times they are a-changin'. After getting one lousy playoff win in 60 years, Arizona has won four in the last two years. These perennial losers are poised to stay relevant for the next few years...if Matt Leinart can get his head out of his ass and take the reins from Warner.

Atlanta Falcons- "The Future's So Bright, I Gotta Wear Shades" by Timbuk 3- A solid young team lead by one of the most polished 24-year-old quarterbacks you will ever see. I see a decade's worth of 10-win seasons.

Baltimore Ravens- "Learning to Fly" by Tom Petty- After years of offensive incompetence, especially in the passing game, Joe Flacco had the Ravens's offense flying high (or at least functional for once).

Buffalo Bills- "Somebody Nobody Wants" by Dion- Everybody I see seems to have someone but me. When did coaching the Bills become the worst job in the NFL? Everybody keeps turning down the head coaching position. They may have to hire Jim Kelly or something.

Carolina Panthers- "Drunk Drivin'" by Sublime- Every game was a wreck waiting to happen. Like driving drunk, disaster isn't guaranteed, but when Delhomme crashes, it's a 10-car pile up.

Chicago Bears- "Same Old Song and Dance" by Aerosmith- In the last 17 years, Chicago has had 13 different quarterbacks lead the team in passing. None can be described as "successful". Same shit, different year.

Cincinnati Bengals- "I'm Still Standing" by Elton John- One of the toughest teams you will see. Battled their own history, injuries, and tragedy (twice) to make it to the playoffs. Good showing by "the-team-formerly-known-as-the-Bungles."

Cleveland Browns- "I Wanna Rock (Doo Doo Brown)" by Luke- The Browns are shit. That's about the only relevance here.

Dallas Cowboys- "Glamorous" by Fergie- Once again, The 'Boys are America's glamor team, yet still can't win anything significant. At least they ended the playoff win drought.

Denver Broncos- "Free Fallin'" by Tom Petty- For the second straight year, they choked away the division. The reason this isn't the Giants' song is because they played better competition.

Detroit Lions- "Loser" by Beck- Soy un perdidor. I'm a loser baby, so why don't you kill me? If only we could.

Green Bay Packers- "The Best is Yet to Come" by Frank Sinatra- They are again the youngest NFL team, and have a solid foundation to be legit contender for the next decade.

Houston Texans- "Keep A-Knocking" by Jordan Louis- Each of the past three seasons, the Texans were expected to make the jump to contender status. Each of the past three seasons, they have fallen short. They are good, but just seem to lack the killer instinct.

Indianapolis Colts- "Nobody's Perfect" by Hannah Montana- But I wish they would have had enough pride to try to be.

Jacksonville Jaguars- "We Gotta Get Out of This Place" by The Animals- After failing to sell out their first 9 games of the year (two pre-season), The Jags need a fan base that will come out to their games. Next stop, L.A.

Kansas City Chiefs- "The Boys are Back in Town" by Thin Lizzy- It's a different town, but they are getting the band back together. GM Scott Pioli is trying to relive the Patriots glory days in K.C by hiring Todd Haley (HC), Matt Cassell (QB), Romeo Crennel (DC) and Charlie Weis (OC). Only time will tell how this experiment goes.

Miami Dolphins- "Hanging Around" by the Counting Crows, and "Black and White" by Three Dog Night- Only two of their games were decided by more than 12 points (Buffalo twice). They dominated much of their games against the Colts and Saints, yet came away empty-handed both times. Through 11 games, they gave up 134 fourth quarter points (12 per game), yet only gave up 6 fourth quarter points in the last five games combined. Weird season for the 'Fins.

Minnesota Vikings- "You Can Make History (Young Again)" by Elton John- In an attempt to break through and finally win a Super Bowl, Minnesota had 40-year-old Brett Favre playing like he was 25 again.

New England Patriots- "Good Riddance (Time of Your Life) by Green Day" The Patriots' reign of dominance is over. After owning the 00's, New England has failed to win a playoff game in the last two years, and are no longer feared. To some people, it was fun while it lasted.

New Orleans Saints- "Bridge Over Troubled Water" by Simon and Garfunkel - When you're down and out, when you are on the street, when evening falls so hard, I will comfort you. The city of New Orleans has attached itself to the Saints like nothing I have ever seen before. In turn, Brees and the Saints have pulled them up off and dusted them off.

New York Giants- "Hot and Cold" by Katy Perry- This team was an enigma. After five games, it was all but guaranteed that they would be representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. They looked fantastic. Then they proceeded to lose four straight. For a team that prides itself on defense, they were a disappointment, finishing 30th in scoring defense. With the playoffs well within reach, they ended the season by surrendering 40+ in three of the last four games. Ouch.

New York Jets- "We're Only Gonna Die For Our Own Arrogance" by Sublime- Easily the most arrogant team in the league. Usually you have to accomplish something to be that way. Not for Rex Ryan and the rest of those assholes. Nothing is worse than watching the Jets play in January, especially since they didn't earn it. At least the Dolphins swept them to make it 3 in a row. Fuck the Jets.

Oakland Raiders- "Highway to Hell" by AC/DC- Widely considered the worst job in the NFL, it is coaching purgatory. As Callahan, Turner, Shell, Kiffin, and Cable have learned, it's now practically impossible to win more than 5 games under the Crypt Keeper.

Philadelphia Eagles- "Life in the Fast Lane" by The Eagles- League's 5th best offense that led the league in big plays came to a crashing halt in a week 17 shutout in Dallas. Didn't get much better in the wildcard rematch in Big D. Three of their four lowest point totals came in losses against the 'Boys. Ouch.

Pittsburgh Steelers- "Mad World" by Tears For Fears- In what bizarro world do the perennially tough-as-nails Steelers have a 4,000 yard passer, go 2-5 in games decided by a field goal, and lose to K.C, Oakland, and Cleveland in the span of 19 days? Terribly un-inspired season by the Steelers.

San Diego Chargers- "What Hurts The Most" by Rascal Flatts- Probably the most consistently talented teams of the last 5 or so years, yet they can't quite put it all together. Most teams don't get a Super Bowl window this big.

San Fransisco 49ers- "Like Father Like Son" by Lil' Wayne- Lil' Wizzle but you bitches call me first place. Poppa taught me paper chase, never skirt chase. Word. Honestly, I have no idea if that lyric is relevant. I just wanted to note that the 49ers have taken adopted the identity of their head coach. They are "Singletary tough." Their defense held 6 opponents to single digit scoring. Impressive no matter who you play against.

Seattle Seahawks- "I Disappear" by Metallica- Probably the most forgettable season in recent years. No memorable performances, no memorable plays; they were just there. A whole lot of blah. Their whole season was one long nap.

St. Louis Rams-"Help!" by The Beatles- They need it. Especially Steven Jackson who shouldered the entire offensive load this season. They can't afford to waste a back that talented who is still in his prime.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers- "Colorblind" by Counting Crows- Freeman couldn't seem to throw the ball to the right team. As a team, the Bucs threw 29 interceptions. All remnants of Dungy's team are gone, and the Bucs are in danger of slipping back into their old ways of the Creamsicle days.

Tennessee Titans- "Stairway to Heaven" by Led Zeppelin- Very slow start (0-6), then Paige (Vince Young) comes in with one of the great guitar solos of all-time. They narrowly missed becoming the first team to make the playoffs after starting with 6 straight losses.

Washington Redskins- "Can't Buy Me Love" by The Beatles- Every year they are the big free agency "winners," yet come November are out of the race. The love has been lost in Washington, as the Redskins are only the 17th most popular NFL team.

Cold Hard Bullshit

I was on the Cold Hard Football Facts (CHFF) website the other day, and I found an article by an obvious Marino hater. First and foremost, it is only right that I let you know how I feel about Dan Marino and the Miami Dolphins. I grew up in Miami, and was born during Marino's rookie year. He was my boyhood idol, and could argue till I was blue in the face that he was the greatest athlete, and the Dolphins were the greatest team in the history of sport (Shula is NFL's best football coach ever. That one is not debatable). Unfortunately, I grew up (kinda). I still love the Dolphins, but can concede that the Steelers and Cowboys are a stronger franchises. And I know that there is no concrete determination as to who is the NFL's all-time greatest quarterback.

To examine whether or not this guy's article has any sort of validity, I am going to break down the accuracy and relevance of some of the statements he made. That is your cue to read the article, if you have twice ignored the links I posted.

I am sure you have all heard the phrase "the numbers don't lie." Chances are, the person who you heard it from just got done lying to you through cleverly fabricated statistics. Numbers can be made to say just about anything you want them to. That is why I find much of what this article says is absurd. The point of this post is not to prove that Marino is the greatest QB of all-time, it is to refute the assertion that Dan Marino was "the real reason Miami never won a Super Bowl in the 80's and 90's." 

To say that a particular team or player should win a Super Bowl is shortsighted at best. While there are a few teams each year that could win it all, nothing in this league is guaranteed, and there are a lot of things that have to come together to win a Super Bowl. Let's examine the assertion that Dan Marino should have won a Super Bowl in his career. To do so, you must first understand what it takes to win a Super Bowl; or more accurately, what it took to win a Super Bowl from 1983-1999.

Defense
A good defense is vital to winning championships. During Marino's career, Super Bowl winners have averaged the 4th best scoring defense. Only one of those teams ranked outside the top 8 (Raiders 1983, 13th). So it is fairly safe to say "you had to have a top 8 scoring defense to win a Super Bowl." By that standard, Marino played on only 4 teams with defenses good enough to win the Super Bowl ('83, '84, '90, '98).

CHFF argues that Marino played on teams with defenses strong enough to win a Super Bowl. While that statement in itself is factual, having the top ranked defense does not guarantee a Super Bowl victory. Only 4 out of the top-ranked defenses won the Super Bowl during Marino's career. Miami twice boasted the league's top-ranked scoring defense during Marino's tenure, his rookie year ('83) and his penultimate season  ('98). A defense, no matter how good it is, needs some help.

Rushing Offense
You are not going to find many successful teams that run the ball poorly. During the period in question, the average rushing offense for Super Bowl winners was ranked 5th in the league, with no team finishing outside the top 11. Miami on the other hand never finished higher than 13th in the league in rushing. Seems awfully hard to win a championship like that.

Sometimes total rushing yards tells you how often a team rushes, not necessarily how efficient they are at it. For argument's sake let's look at the yards per carry (YPC) stats for the Super Bowl winners. They have ranked an average of 8th in YPC, and all but two of them finished in the top half of the league. So would you say it is fair to say "to win a Super Bowl, one must be among the top half of the league of rushing efficiency?" That is not a lofty standard by any means. Unfortunately, Marino's Dolphins finished in the top half of that category only three times in his career ('86, '87, '94).

Five out six SB winners who finished outside the top ten in rushing YPC had a top-3 defense to help counteract their average running game. That said, I conclude that "to win with an average running game, you must have a top-3 defense." Marino could only wish for an average rushing attack to help him out, much less a good one. Only 5 of his 17 seasons did he have a rushing attack that could even be considered "average" (better than 20th).

Balance

The adage that says "defense wins championships" is only half-true. The other half should say "rushing wins championships" because you can't win in January without both. When the temperature drops, and snow starts falling, you have to be able to run the football if you are going to have success. In the playoffs, teams that throw the ball 45 times in a game are 11-60 all-time (.154 win pct.). When a team throws the ball 40 times, they are 29-117 (.198 win pct.). Conversely, teams are unbeaten (32-0) in the playoffs when they have a player rush the ball 30 times.  In playoff games when they have a player rush the ball 25+ times, they are 109-23 (.825 win pct.). Marino played in 6 playoff games (1-5 rec.) where he was forced to throw the football 45+ times, and only once in his career did Marino have a RB rush the ball 25 times in a playoff game. It was Karim Abdul-Jabbar in 1999. They won. Here is some perspective: Marino played 242 games in his career. In only 23 of those games did he have a RB run the ball 25 times. Terrell Davis had 25+ carries in a game 19 times during Denver's  back to back Super Bowl run. Football is the ultimate team game, and that is why it is ridiculous to crucify one player for failing to win a championship. There are 45 players (and 12 coaches) that can impact the game; no single player can do it himself.

Let's examine the years Marino had either a defense or a running game (YPC and total yards included) competent enough to help him win a Super Bowl:

1983- Rushing 13th (23rd YPC), Defense 1st- This season Miami had a solid chance at winning a Super Bowl. Unfortunately, rookie QBs don't win Super Bowls. Marino emerged as a starter in week 5 and lit it up, being the only rookie QB ever elected to start a Pro Bowl. Can't ask for much more from a rookie QB. Marino didn't play specifically well in Miami's playoff loss to Seattle (2 TD, 2 INT). In hindsight, it was probably Marino's best chance to hoist the Lombardi trophy, as the Raiders were the weakest Super Bowl champion during Marino's era.

1984- Rushing 16th (16th), Defense 7th- Marino's second best (and probably last real) chance to win a Super Bowl. Marino had the greatest statistical season by any QB before or since. His defense and rushing attack was more than good enough to get to the Super Bowl. They made it there, but unfortunately, they had to play the 5th greatest team of all time.

1986- Rushing 25th (4th), Defense 26th- Marino had another all-time great season, but it wasn't enough to overcome a defense gave up 30+ points 7 times. If you can score 45 points and lose, you know you have a problem. No chance.

1987- Rushing 24th (10th), Defense 16th- Solid Pro Bowl season by Marino. The offense scored 20+ points in 5 losses. The defense wasn't absolutely terrible, but, it wasn't Super Bowl quality.

1990- Rushing 27th (28th), Defense 4th- Great defense, terrible running game. In the Divisional round of the playoffs, Marino scored 4 TDs (2 int), and the "great" defense imploded, giving up 44 points in a loss to Buffalo.

1994- Rushing 13th (10th), Defense 17th- Marino came back from a torn achilles tendon to make the Pro Bowl. An average defense and running game will get a great QB to the 2nd round of the playoffs. That's what happened here. Marino had 3 TD (0 int) in a 1 point loss to San Diego. Miami was out-rushed 202-26 (you can't win with that line), and the difference in the game was a safety against Miami RB Bernie Parmalee.

1998- Rushing 24th (30th), Defense 1st- This was Jimmy Johnson's smashmouth team. Unfortunately, J.J. forgot to draft a runningback competent enough to carry the load. It was Marino's penultimate season, and his health/skills were on the decline. Still, he lead them to the Divisional round of the playoffs. Miami got worked by a team J.J. wanted to be like. Marino did not play well (2 int), but he had no help whatsoever. Denver outrushed Miami 250-14, and Miami's defense surrendered 38 points. If Miami had Terrell Davis, and Denver had  Karim Abdul-Jabbar, my guess is that Marino, not Elway, is the one riding off into the sunset.

Unfortunately, it is apparent that Marino never had the luxury of having a competent running game and defense in the same season. He was forced to either shoulder the entire burden of the offense by himself, or help his offense score more points than his swiss cheese defense surrendered. That is not a Super Bowl winning formula. After researching this guy's tired article, I submit that they change the name of their website to Cold Hard Football Opinions Cleverly Disguised as Facts Through the Magic of Skewed Statistics.

You're fucking out.