My Second Favorite Draft (After Beer)

Now that the 2010 NFL Draft is officially in the books, it is time to second-guess my favorite team: The Miami Dolphins. Second-guessing your team's picks is the God-given right of all football fans, so get over it. That said, I must say that although I question some of The Big Tuna's picks, I don't presume to know more about football than he does, so in the end, I trust that he is taking this team in the right direction. In fact, my trust in Parcells was strengthened when he pulled the trigger on the Brandon Marshall trade. I was beginning to think that his philosophy on football was dated, and that he refused to respect the position of WR in an increasingly pass-heavy league. He surprised me by going after the big-time wideout; especially since there were questions about his character.

Aside: I really think that Brandon Marshall's locker room antics are a thing of the past. He is among five best players at his position, and has had over 100 receptions each of the last 3 seasons, yet 42 other WRs made more money than he did last year, including his teammate Jabar Gaffney. The new coach traded away his Pro-Bowl QB in the off-season. I would be upset if I was him too. And although he asked to be traded, he never dogged it on the field. He has a new contract, and is on a team that respects him (ask any player how a team shows you respect, and they will tell you it's by paying them.) and gets to play with a strong-armed QB and a very good running game. I think we are going to see a happy, productive Brandon Marshall from here on out.

Back to the topic at hand, based on the Marshall trade, and the fact that Miami stockpiled 7 players on the defensive side of the ball, addressing needs at LB, S, and D-line, my initial reaction is that Miami earned a solid B on their draft. But, the reality is that whether I'm a bullshit blogger with a fan-base of three readers and a girlfriend, or I'm Mel Kiper Jr, my next-day draft grade means nothing. We won't really know anything until a year or two down the road. The only way you can really immediately judge a draft as successful or not is if the team addressed their positions of need.

Miami's Picks:

RD

1 (28th) Jared Odrick,  DT  Penn State

2 (40th) Kao Misi,  DE  Utah

3 (73rd) John Jerry,  G  Mississippi

4 (119th) AJ Edds,  OLB  Iowa

5 (145th) Nolan Carroll,  CB  Maryland

5 (163rd) Reshad Jones,  S  Georgia

7 (212nd) Chris McCoy,  OLB Middle Tennessee

7 (252nd) Austin Spitler,  ILB  Ohio State

I hope every single one of these players pans out. That would be great. But let's be real, it is often times a crapshoot. I have heard good things about Odrick, but I am not completely sold that he can play in the middle of a 3-4 line. He seems a bit small. Misi is slated to play outside linebacker, but he hasn't shown himself to be even a moderately productive pass rusher. We went into this draft needing a dominant pass rusher, and got nothing that even resembles one. Parcells and co. must have a lot of faith in the development of Cameron Wake to have left all their egg in his basket. I am excited to see him in a more featured role next season. AJ Edds, by all counts, seems to be solid, but I don't trust players from Iowa. Spitler could end up being the better pick. We will see.  

For the sake of future I-told-you-so's, here is a list of guys I wish Miami had drafted. We realistically could have had almost all of them. Remember this list, because I will refer to it when these guys make the Pro Bowl.  Especially George Selvie. 

14th- Earl Thomas,  S  Texas

43rd- Sergio Kindle,  OLB  Texas

57th- Terrence Cody,  DT  Alabama

113th- Aaron Hernandez,  TE  Florida

124th- Eric Norwood,  OLB  South Carolina

207th- Myron Rolle,  S  Florida State

226th- George Selvie,  DE  South Florida

Undrafted- Colin Peek  TE  Alabama

Check out this video of Cameron Wake. What a freak.

You Can Wonderlic My Balls Capi-tan

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Alert the media! Tim Tebow scored!

...a 22 on the Wonderlic test (out of 50). Just kidding, the media already knows. The scores were leaked via Tweet by Edgar Thompson, a Dolphins beat writer with the Palm Beach Post, and now everybody knows. It seems to be a big deal for a people associated with the NFL Draft. Much was made of Vince Young scoring a 6 in 2005. Even last year, a red flag was raised when Percy Harvin scored a 12. Maybe that is how he chose his jersey number. Incidentally, both players managed to win Rookie of the Year honors. I guess it really only begs one question:

Does the Wonderlic test matter?

I personally don't think so. But in order to get a little perspective, I decided to sample the test. I found two different abbreviated versions of the test online. I scored a 39 on the version ESPN posted on Page 2 a few years ago. I also scored a 45 on this other one I found. Obviously, the results I got were not official in any capacity, or even valid. Nonetheless, it is cool to know that I would make a great NFL player. I mean, that is what my scores mean, right?

The Wonderlic test is given to millions of job applicants each year in professions outside of professional sports. It aims to quantify general mental ability, which is in a sense, the ability to learn. 20 is the average score, which indicates an IQ of 100. The average score for a chemist is 32, and 15 for a warehouse worker (21 for the average NFL player). That makes sense. Chemists are required to be more educated than warehouse workers to perform the functions of their given occupations. I understand why employers test applicants. Intelligence is a good indicator of occupational success in many fields, but mainly because physical attributes play such a small role in most professions. So why does the NFL administer the Wonderlic test when the main criteria for success is physical ability?

Although they have found some trends regarding players positions as they relate to scores, there has been no significant link between a high score and a successful career, or vice versa. Just for fun, here are the average scores by position:

(note: If I was Jemelle Hill, I would probably decry the racism inherent in the testing, but that is a different conversation altogether.) 

Offensive Tackle: 26

Center: 25 

Quarterback: 24

Guard: 23

Tight end: 22

Safety: 19

Middle Linebacker: 19

Cornerback: 18

Wide Reciever: 17

Fullback: 17

Runningback: 16

If there was a position that required a higher Wonderlic score I imagine it would be quarterback. They are required to read defenses, make decisions quickly and adjust on the fly. It is unquestionably the most involved position to play in any sport. Here are some notable scores by quarterbacks:

Ryan Fitzpatrick: 48- Harvard graduate. Finished in 9 minutes. Career backup.

Alex Smith: 40- Biggest QB bust of the decade. 

Eli Manning: 39- Can also lick Oreos faster than his big brother can. 

Matt Leinart: 35- Impressive, considering he was probably drunk.

Tom Brady: 33- *sigh* I guess thats why New England drafted him.

John Beck: 30- *sigh* I guess that's why Miami drafted him.

Brady Quinn: 29- May be a bust, but too early still.

Drew Brees: 28- Best QB in the league. Solid score

Peyton Manning: 28- Best QB in the league. Solid score.

Ryan Leaf: 27- I thought he was dumb. Nope. Just crazy.

Brett Favre: 22- Let's hope Tebow can mimic his career too.

Vince Young: 16- But he got a 6 on his first try. No joke.

Dan Marino: 15- More of a doer, than a thinker.

Terry Bradshaw: 15- "Couldn't spell C-A-T if you spotted him the C and T."

Donovan McNabb: 14- Yet he still manages to avoid INTs.

Jeff George: 10- "A score of 10 is literacy." -C. Wonderlic Jr.

Chris Leak: 8- answered 8 of 12 questions correctly then said "Fuck this. I'm out."

Obviously if Wonderlic scores were indicators of NFL success, Fitzpatrick and Smith would replace Favre and Marino in the Hall of Fame. But as you can plainly see, Wonderlic scores are no better of a predictor of NFL success than the 40-yard dash (Jerry Rice ran a 4.71, Emmitt Smith ran a 4.8). In my estimation, only 10% of the information gathered from all the the cone drills, sprint drills, and aptitude tests actually help measure future success. The reason scouts force players to go through all of the rigmarole is so in the end when the players that they drafted fail, scouts can use these scores as a crutch. When they draft a bust, nobody can say they didn't do their due diligence. 

This year's marquee quarterbacks:

Sam Bradford: 36

Colt McCoy: 25

Jimmy Clausen: 23

Tim Tebow: 22

Let's see how this plays out.

*****

Fun Wonderlic Fact: Frank Gore (who graduated from my high school a year ahead of me) scored a 6. He's Dyslexic. Literally. No pun intended. He took a verbal test later on and scored higher. (That is only the second time in my life when I actually meant it when I said "no pun intended." Practically every time someone says "no pun intended" they do so because they went out of their way to make a pun. Fuckers.)

Before you go, watch this remembering these words Todd McShay uttered less than a month ago: "[Tebow] will not make it in the NFL; I'm sure of it."

The Draft

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It seems that everybody and their mothers are dissecting, analyzing, and prognosticating Tim Tebow's draft prospects. Enough people have put their two cents in that Timmy could fill his abortion jar 100 times over. But I digress. They have a million questions about Tebow, and are trying desperately to answer them before the end of the month. Will he be able to fix his throwing motion? Is he going to be another Alex Smith? Is he going to play tight end? With all the question marks surrounding him, it's a wonder how he managed to help the Gators win 48 games (35 as a starter), win two BCS National Titles, and capture a Heisman Trophy. With all that success, he has become a polarizing figure. It is safe to say that there has never been a more captivating college athlete. I guess that explains all the questions.

The NFL has become a machine. It is America's most popular sport, and far and away its most successful professional league. With the help of ESPN (and assholes like me who never change the channel), The NFL has become a year-round event. The day after the Super Bowl, pundits were already ranking teams for 2010, evaluating off-season personnel needs*, and speculating on free agent signings. The crown jewel for the NFL off-season is The Draft. With the draft comes the pre-draft meat market some refer to as "The NFL Combine."

* I realize that this image is not relevant in any way, but I stumbled upon it while Googling "2010 NFL Draft." She is hot. That is enough reason for me.

The combine takes place every spring about a month before the draft. The point of it is to quantify the things we think we know, thus guaranteeing that the Raiders will draft a big, strong, fast player who is incapable of actually playing football. My favorite part about the combine is how "experts" use the results of the drills to reinforce what they previously believed, or refute what they thought they knew after watching a player week in and week out on the field every Saturday for four years. It is a fantastic waste of money. But then again, it is the NFL, and they print their own money there. (You like that Brady Dollar? I just did that myself on the fly. I'm a fucking internet stallion. Boom!). The thing that gets me about the draft is that I can't think of a situation in the real world where past accomplishments are thrown out the window, and scored from completely unrelated tasks are the standard. How is this line of thinking valid, or acceptable?

Interviewer: "...Let's look at your work experience. It says here you were a high school janit-

Wannabe Employee: "Custodian...I was a custodian."

Interviewer: "Ok. Custodian. And you were the assistant to the regional manager at McDonald's."

Wannabe Employee:   "Something like that."

Interviewer: "Thanks for your interest. I think I have seen enough."

Wannabe Employee: "Check me out. I can juggle."

Interviewer: "...enough to know that you are management material. Welcome to the company!"

Now here is Tim Tebow. All he has done the last four years is give everything he has for Gator Nation. He has gotten excellent (at times historic) results. Anyone you ask gives glowing reports about Tebow the man, the teammate, the competitor, and the winner. Then you have Todd McShay's assessment: "[Tebow] will not make it in the NFL; I'm sure of it." I feel it necessary to point out that McShay also gave a glowing endorsement of JaMarcus Russell. Idiot.

Unfortunately for Tebow, the NFL is full of sheep, and they will continue banking on Ryan Leafs and pass up players like Tebow, that don't fit the NFL mold because that is just the way things are done. I hope Tebow steps right in, lights up the league and wins multiple Super Bowls. Partly because I am a Gator fan, but mostly because I hate everybody. And everybody includes all those "experts" out there who don't know shit, yet think their word is absolute truth. 

Hindsight is 20/20 (But Mine Is 20/10)

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That is hindsight bias in a nutshell. Ask any NFL fan, and he will tell you that he knew Reggie Bush was going to be a bust, and Mario Williams was going to be a stud. The NFL draft “gurus” think they know exactly how things are going to shake out, but in reality they are wrong more often than they are right.

These are the top 5 players on Mel Kiper’s 2007 Big Board:

1. Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech (6-4, 225)

He's not only a tremendous athlete, but he's also a hard worker and very team oriented.

2. Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin (6-6½, 313)

Huge, quick and athletic with a long wingspan.

3. Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame (6-3½, 225)

Poised, smart and at his best in pressure situations. Quinn did throw two interceptions in Sugar Bowl after throwing just one INT in his previous eight games.

4. JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU (6-6, 260)

Big, strong signal caller with a powerful arm. Decision-making improved significantly this season.

5. Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma (6-1½, 218)

Talented RB with an excellent burst to the outside for a back his size. The concern is durability.

Three out of five is not bad, Mel Better than you usually do. Here is what I said about these guys at the time:

1. Calvin Johnson – He is a Hulk. His size is nice, but paired with his speed makes him a no brainer. By all accounts, a good team guy. I have only seen highlights of him, but he played like Larry Fitzgerald, always going up to get the football, regardless of who was covering him. Worth trading up for… My grade A+.

2. Joe Thomas – I am not going to pretend to know about an offensive linemen who I haven’t seen play game in and game out. I would have to just believe what the “experts” said. After seeing on draft day that he chose to stay home instead of going to New York, I liked him and thought that the experts might be right about his blue collar work ethic… My grade N/A.

3. Brady Quinn – I was never really sold on him as a superstar. I saw him as a guy who would only be a starter by default*. He appeared to have the basic tools, and seemed smart enough to churn out a Brad Johnson-type career. But I never sensed the “it factor” that you see in the greats. Watching him get abused by LSU in his last bowl game killed any good feelings I had about him. I saw him as the media’s Golden Boy because he was the good looking QB at Notre Dame. That said, when he was available at #9, I really wanted Miami to draft him. The experts were so high on him, and they badly needed a QB, so I was hoping that I was wrong about him… My grade B-.

4. JaMarcus Russell – A guy who got hyped just because he is a giant. He had shit for brains. The only reason he didn’t throw more interceptions was because of his cannon. He was a poor decision maker. I saw him play three years in the SEC, and was not impressed by anything he ever did. I was shocked when people jumped on his jock during his senior season. I just didn’t see it. Size and arm strength should be icing on the cake, not the main ingredient. My Grade C-.

5. Adrian Peterson – This guy was an animal. The only college running back who I ever graded higher was Ricky Williams (I guess I was right about the “higher” part). He never amassed the numbers that I expected to due to injury. That scared me off a bit, but not too much… My Grade A-.

*starter by default = Think AJ Feeley, John Beck, Gus Frerotte, Cleo Lemon, or Joey Harrington. Basically any Dolphin’s starter in the 10 years since Marino left.

The point of this is not to toot my own horn (yes it is), but I tend to be pretty good at grading draft prospects. Granted, I am one of the few people who will admit to picking Ryan Leaf to be more successful than Peyton Manning, and I thought Robert Gallery looked amazing after seeing him on film. But overall, I have been pretty accurate with my assessments.

But, I digress. Now I am going to get to the original purpose of this post...talking shit about Ted Ginn Jr. He is the fart that still lingers 2 years after the Cam Cameron era, and I absolutely hate that I have to watch him drop passes every single Sunday.

Since the NFL draft began, there have been many top-10 draft picks that have turned out to be busts. Ryan Leaf, Brian Bosworth, Tim Couch, etc. It happens. That is the nature of the NFL, and sports in general. The difference between these guys and Ginn Jr. though, is that everyone knew he was going to be a bust the second he was drafted. It was incredible. Here is why:

1. Miami needed a quarterback. Brady Quinn, who most pundits projected as a top-five pick, was available at #9. This is a no-brainer, right? I guess not. As I said previously, I was not a big Quinn fan, but with everybody being so high on him, I figured he would be worth the risk. At the very least, it would be justified because QB was a position of need. If the Dolphins truly believed that John Beck was going to be the next Dan Marino, then passing on Quinn is understandable. However, that does not justify reaching with their first-round pick.

2. Many experts had the WR class ranked as follows: Calvin Johnson…and then everybody else. Robert Meachem, Dwayne Jarrett, Anthony Gonzalez, Sidney Rice, Dwayne Bowe, and Steve Smith were all available, and expected to go between picks #20 and #50. I fully understand that every team ranks prospects differently, and every team has different needs. But that said, you still have to consider value. With that many receivers available, there was no need select any of them with the 9th pick. At least one of them would surely be available when Miami picked again at #40. Unless you were in love with that particular player, there is no reason to take him at #9. That breaks one of my major rules about the draft: Unless you have the first pick, never get a hard dick over any one particular player.

3. When Cam Cameron introduced his first-round pick, he should have been singing Ginn’s praises. Instead, he tried to justify the pick. His argument was that Ginn is a “great kick returner,” and that he “comes from a great family.” Those are valid reasons to select an undersized wide receiver with poor route-running skills in the 3rd or 4th round. But a top-10 selection needs to be a guy that you fully expect to become a perennial Pro-Bowler. The Dolphins organization lost credibility during said press conference when they were serenaded with chants for Brady Quinn. These aren’t New York fans that boo every draft-day decision the Jets make. The countdown to Cam’s firing had begun as Ginn’s career was destined for failure. This was not a banner day for Miami’s once-proud franchise.