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That is hindsight bias in a nutshell. Ask any NFL fan, and he will tell you that he knew Reggie Bush was going to be a bust, and Mario Williams was going to be a stud. The NFL draft “gurus” think they know exactly how things are going to shake out, but in reality they are wrong more often than they are right.
These are the top 5 players on Mel Kiper’s 2007 Big Board:
1. Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech (6-4, 225)
He's not only a tremendous athlete, but he's also a hard worker and very team oriented.
2. Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin (6-6½, 313)
Huge, quick and athletic with a long wingspan.
3. Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame (6-3½, 225)
Poised, smart and at his best in pressure situations. Quinn did throw two interceptions in Sugar Bowl after throwing just one INT in his previous eight games.
4. JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU (6-6, 260)
Big, strong signal caller with a powerful arm. Decision-making improved significantly this season.
5. Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma (6-1½, 218)
Talented RB with an excellent burst to the outside for a back his size. The concern is durability.
Three out of five is not bad, Mel Better than you usually do. Here is what I said about these guys at the time:
1. Calvin Johnson – He is a Hulk. His size is nice, but paired with his speed makes him a no brainer. By all accounts, a good team guy. I have only seen highlights of him, but he played like Larry Fitzgerald, always going up to get the football, regardless of who was covering him. Worth trading up for… My grade A+.
2. Joe Thomas – I am not going to pretend to know about an offensive linemen who I haven’t seen play game in and game out. I would have to just believe what the “experts” said. After seeing on draft day that he chose to stay home instead of going to New York, I liked him and thought that the experts might be right about his blue collar work ethic… My grade N/A.
3. Brady Quinn – I was never really sold on him as a superstar. I saw him as a guy who would only be a starter by default*. He appeared to have the basic tools, and seemed smart enough to churn out a Brad Johnson-type career. But I never sensed the “it factor” that you see in the greats. Watching him get abused by LSU in his last bowl game killed any good feelings I had about him. I saw him as the media’s Golden Boy because he was the good looking QB at Notre Dame. That said, when he was available at #9, I really wanted Miami to draft him. The experts were so high on him, and they badly needed a QB, so I was hoping that I was wrong about him… My grade B-.
4. JaMarcus Russell – A guy who got hyped just because he is a giant. He had shit for brains. The only reason he didn’t throw more interceptions was because of his cannon. He was a poor decision maker. I saw him play three years in the SEC, and was not impressed by anything he ever did. I was shocked when people jumped on his jock during his senior season. I just didn’t see it. Size and arm strength should be icing on the cake, not the main ingredient. My Grade C-.
5. Adrian Peterson – This guy was an animal. The only college running back who I ever graded higher was Ricky Williams (I guess I was right about the “higher” part). He never amassed the numbers that I expected to due to injury. That scared me off a bit, but not too much… My Grade A-.
*starter by default = Think AJ Feeley, John Beck, Gus Frerotte, Cleo Lemon, or Joey Harrington. Basically any Dolphin’s starter in the 10 years since Marino left.
The point of this is not to toot my own horn (yes it is), but I tend to be pretty good at grading draft prospects. Granted, I am one of the few people who will admit to picking Ryan Leaf to be more successful than Peyton Manning, and I thought Robert Gallery looked amazing after seeing him on film. But overall, I have been pretty accurate with my assessments.
But, I digress. Now I am going to get to the original purpose of this post...talking shit about Ted Ginn Jr. He is the fart that still lingers 2 years after the Cam Cameron era, and I absolutely hate that I have to watch him drop passes every single Sunday.
Since the NFL draft began, there have been many top-10 draft picks that have turned out to be busts. Ryan Leaf, Brian Bosworth, Tim Couch, etc. It happens. That is the nature of the NFL, and sports in general. The difference between these guys and Ginn Jr. though, is that everyone knew he was going to be a bust the second he was drafted. It was incredible. Here is why:
1. Miami needed a quarterback. Brady Quinn, who most pundits projected as a top-five pick, was available at #9. This is a no-brainer, right? I guess not. As I said previously, I was not a big Quinn fan, but with everybody being so high on him, I figured he would be worth the risk. At the very least, it would be justified because QB was a position of need. If the Dolphins truly believed that John Beck was going to be the next Dan Marino, then passing on Quinn is understandable. However, that does not justify reaching with their first-round pick.
2. Many experts had the WR class ranked as follows: Calvin Johnson…and then everybody else. Robert Meachem, Dwayne Jarrett, Anthony Gonzalez, Sidney Rice, Dwayne Bowe, and Steve Smith were all available, and expected to go between picks #20 and #50. I fully understand that every team ranks prospects differently, and every team has different needs. But that said, you still have to consider value. With that many receivers available, there was no need select any of them with the 9th pick. At least one of them would surely be available when Miami picked again at #40. Unless you were in love with that particular player, there is no reason to take him at #9. That breaks one of my major rules about the draft: Unless you have the first pick, never get a hard dick over any one particular player.
3. When Cam Cameron introduced his first-round pick, he should have been singing Ginn’s praises. Instead, he tried to justify the pick. His argument was that Ginn is a “great kick returner,” and that he “comes from a great family.” Those are valid reasons to select an undersized wide receiver with poor route-running skills in the 3rd or 4th round. But a top-10 selection needs to be a guy that you fully expect to become a perennial Pro-Bowler. The Dolphins organization lost credibility during said press conference when they were serenaded with chants for Brady Quinn. These aren’t New York fans that boo every draft-day decision the Jets make. The countdown to Cam’s firing had begun as Ginn’s career was destined for failure. This was not a banner day for Miami’s once-proud franchise.
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