I was on the Cold Hard Football Facts (CHFF) website the other day, and I found an article by an obvious Marino hater. First and foremost, it is only right that I let you know how I feel about Dan Marino and the Miami Dolphins. I grew up in Miami, and was born during Marino's rookie year. He was my boyhood idol, and could argue till I was blue in the face that he was the greatest athlete, and the Dolphins were the greatest team in the history of sport (Shula is NFL's best football coach ever. That one is not debatable). Unfortunately, I grew up (kinda). I still love the Dolphins, but can concede that the Steelers and Cowboys are a stronger franchises. And I know that there is no concrete determination as to who is the NFL's all-time greatest quarterback.
To examine whether or not this guy's article has any sort of validity, I am going to break down the accuracy and relevance of some of the statements he made. That is your cue to read the article, if you have twice ignored the links I posted.
I am sure you have all heard the phrase "the numbers don't lie." Chances are, the person who you heard it from just got done lying to you through cleverly fabricated statistics. Numbers can be made to say just about anything you want them to. That is why I find much of what this article says is absurd. The point of this post is not to prove that Marino is the greatest QB of all-time, it is to refute the assertion that Dan Marino was "the real reason Miami never won a Super Bowl in the 80's and 90's."
To say that a particular team or player should win a Super Bowl is shortsighted at best. While there are a few teams each year that could win it all, nothing in this league is guaranteed, and there are a lot of things that have to come together to win a Super Bowl. Let's examine the assertion that Dan Marino should have won a Super Bowl in his career. To do so, you must first understand what it takes to win a Super Bowl; or more accurately, what it took to win a Super Bowl from 1983-1999.
Defense
A good defense is vital to winning championships. During Marino's career, Super Bowl winners have averaged the 4th best scoring defense. Only one of those teams ranked outside the top 8 (Raiders 1983, 13th). So it is fairly safe to say "you had to have a top 8 scoring defense to win a Super Bowl." By that standard, Marino played on only 4 teams with defenses good enough to win the Super Bowl ('83, '84, '90, '98).
CHFF argues that Marino played on teams with defenses strong enough to win a Super Bowl. While that statement in itself is factual, having the top ranked defense does not guarantee a Super Bowl victory. Only 4 out of the top-ranked defenses won the Super Bowl during Marino's career. Miami twice boasted the league's top-ranked scoring defense during Marino's tenure, his rookie year ('83) and his penultimate season ('98). A defense, no matter how good it is, needs some help.
Rushing Offense
You are not going to find many successful teams that run the ball poorly. During the period in question, the average rushing offense for Super Bowl winners was ranked 5th in the league, with no team finishing outside the top 11. Miami on the other hand never finished higher than 13th in the league in rushing. Seems awfully hard to win a championship like that.
Sometimes total rushing yards tells you how often a team rushes, not necessarily how efficient they are at it. For argument's sake let's look at the yards per carry (YPC) stats for the Super Bowl winners. They have ranked an average of 8th in YPC, and all but two of them finished in the top half of the league. So would you say it is fair to say "to win a Super Bowl, one must be among the top half of the league of rushing efficiency?" That is not a lofty standard by any means. Unfortunately, Marino's Dolphins finished in the top half of that category only three times in his career ('86, '87, '94).
Balance
Let's examine the years Marino had either a defense or a running game (YPC and total yards included) competent enough to help him win a Super Bowl:
1983- Rushing 13th (23rd YPC), Defense 1st- This season Miami had a solid chance at winning a Super Bowl. Unfortunately, rookie QBs don't win Super Bowls. Marino emerged as a starter in week 5 and lit it up, being the only rookie QB ever elected to start a Pro Bowl. Can't ask for much more from a rookie QB. Marino didn't play specifically well in Miami's playoff loss to Seattle (2 TD, 2 INT). In hindsight, it was probably Marino's best chance to hoist the Lombardi trophy, as the Raiders were the weakest Super Bowl champion during Marino's era.
1984- Rushing 16th (16th), Defense 7th- Marino's second best (and probably last real) chance to win a Super Bowl. Marino had the greatest statistical season by any QB before or since. His defense and rushing attack was more than good enough to get to the Super Bowl. They made it there, but unfortunately, they had to play the 5th greatest team of all time.
1986- Rushing 25th (4th), Defense 26th- Marino had another all-time great season, but it wasn't enough to overcome a defense gave up 30+ points 7 times. If you can score 45 points and lose, you know you have a problem. No chance.
1987- Rushing 24th (10th), Defense 16th- Solid Pro Bowl season by Marino. The offense scored 20+ points in 5 losses. The defense wasn't absolutely terrible, but, it wasn't Super Bowl quality.
1990- Rushing 27th (28th), Defense 4th- Great defense, terrible running game. In the Divisional round of the playoffs, Marino scored 4 TDs (2 int), and the "great" defense imploded, giving up 44 points in a loss to Buffalo.
1994- Rushing 13th (10th), Defense 17th- Marino came back from a torn achilles tendon to make the Pro Bowl. An average defense and running game will get a great QB to the 2nd round of the playoffs. That's what happened here. Marino had 3 TD (0 int) in a 1 point loss to San Diego. Miami was out-rushed 202-26 (you can't win with that line), and the difference in the game was a safety against Miami RB Bernie Parmalee.
1998- Rushing 24th (30th), Defense 1st- This was Jimmy Johnson's smashmouth team. Unfortunately, J.J. forgot to draft a runningback competent enough to carry the load. It was Marino's penultimate season, and his health/skills were on the decline. Still, he lead them to the Divisional round of the playoffs. Miami got worked by a team J.J. wanted to be like. Marino did not play well (2 int), but he had no help whatsoever. Denver outrushed Miami 250-14, and Miami's defense surrendered 38 points. If Miami had Terrell Davis, and Denver had Karim Abdul-Jabbar, my guess is that Marino, not Elway, is the one riding off into the sunset.
Unfortunately, it is apparent that Marino never had the luxury of having a competent running game and defense in the same season. He was forced to either shoulder the entire burden of the offense by himself, or help his offense score more points than his swiss cheese defense surrendered. That is not a Super Bowl winning formula. After researching this guy's tired article, I submit that they change the name of their website to Cold Hard Football Opinions Cleverly Disguised as Facts Through the Magic of Skewed Statistics.
You're fucking out.
To say that a particular team or player should win a Super Bowl is shortsighted at best. While there are a few teams each year that could win it all, nothing in this league is guaranteed, and there are a lot of things that have to come together to win a Super Bowl. Let's examine the assertion that Dan Marino should have won a Super Bowl in his career. To do so, you must first understand what it takes to win a Super Bowl; or more accurately, what it took to win a Super Bowl from 1983-1999.
Defense
A good defense is vital to winning championships. During Marino's career, Super Bowl winners have averaged the 4th best scoring defense. Only one of those teams ranked outside the top 8 (Raiders 1983, 13th). So it is fairly safe to say "you had to have a top 8 scoring defense to win a Super Bowl." By that standard, Marino played on only 4 teams with defenses good enough to win the Super Bowl ('83, '84, '90, '98).
CHFF argues that Marino played on teams with defenses strong enough to win a Super Bowl. While that statement in itself is factual, having the top ranked defense does not guarantee a Super Bowl victory. Only 4 out of the top-ranked defenses won the Super Bowl during Marino's career. Miami twice boasted the league's top-ranked scoring defense during Marino's tenure, his rookie year ('83) and his penultimate season ('98). A defense, no matter how good it is, needs some help.
Rushing Offense
You are not going to find many successful teams that run the ball poorly. During the period in question, the average rushing offense for Super Bowl winners was ranked 5th in the league, with no team finishing outside the top 11. Miami on the other hand never finished higher than 13th in the league in rushing. Seems awfully hard to win a championship like that.
Sometimes total rushing yards tells you how often a team rushes, not necessarily how efficient they are at it. For argument's sake let's look at the yards per carry (YPC) stats for the Super Bowl winners. They have ranked an average of 8th in YPC, and all but two of them finished in the top half of the league. So would you say it is fair to say "to win a Super Bowl, one must be among the top half of the league of rushing efficiency?" That is not a lofty standard by any means. Unfortunately, Marino's Dolphins finished in the top half of that category only three times in his career ('86, '87, '94).
Five out six SB winners who finished outside the top ten in rushing YPC had a top-3 defense to help counteract their average running game. That said, I conclude that "to win with an average running game, you must have a top-3 defense." Marino could only wish for an average rushing attack to help him out, much less a good one. Only 5 of his 17 seasons did he have a rushing attack that could even be considered "average" (better than 20th).
Balance
The adage that says "defense wins championships" is only half-true. The other half should say "rushing wins championships" because you can't win in January without both. When the temperature drops, and snow starts falling, you have to be able to run the football if you are going to have success. In the playoffs, teams that throw the ball 45 times in a game are 11-60 all-time (.154 win pct.). When a team throws the ball 40 times, they are 29-117 (.198 win pct.). Conversely, teams are unbeaten (32-0) in the playoffs when they have a player rush the ball 30 times. In playoff games when they have a player rush the ball 25+ times, they are 109-23 (.825 win pct.). Marino played in 6 playoff games (1-5 rec.) where he was forced to throw the football 45+ times, and only once in his career did Marino have a RB rush the ball 25 times in a playoff game. It was Karim Abdul-Jabbar in 1999. They won. Here is some perspective: Marino played 242 games in his career. In only 23 of those games did he have a RB run the ball 25 times. Terrell Davis had 25+ carries in a game 19 times during Denver's back to back Super Bowl run. Football is the ultimate team game, and that is why it is ridiculous to crucify one player for failing to win a championship. There are 45 players (and 12 coaches) that can impact the game; no single player can do it himself.
Let's examine the years Marino had either a defense or a running game (YPC and total yards included) competent enough to help him win a Super Bowl:
1983- Rushing 13th (23rd YPC), Defense 1st- This season Miami had a solid chance at winning a Super Bowl. Unfortunately, rookie QBs don't win Super Bowls. Marino emerged as a starter in week 5 and lit it up, being the only rookie QB ever elected to start a Pro Bowl. Can't ask for much more from a rookie QB. Marino didn't play specifically well in Miami's playoff loss to Seattle (2 TD, 2 INT). In hindsight, it was probably Marino's best chance to hoist the Lombardi trophy, as the Raiders were the weakest Super Bowl champion during Marino's era.
1984- Rushing 16th (16th), Defense 7th- Marino's second best (and probably last real) chance to win a Super Bowl. Marino had the greatest statistical season by any QB before or since. His defense and rushing attack was more than good enough to get to the Super Bowl. They made it there, but unfortunately, they had to play the 5th greatest team of all time.
1986- Rushing 25th (4th), Defense 26th- Marino had another all-time great season, but it wasn't enough to overcome a defense gave up 30+ points 7 times. If you can score 45 points and lose, you know you have a problem. No chance.
1987- Rushing 24th (10th), Defense 16th- Solid Pro Bowl season by Marino. The offense scored 20+ points in 5 losses. The defense wasn't absolutely terrible, but, it wasn't Super Bowl quality.
1990- Rushing 27th (28th), Defense 4th- Great defense, terrible running game. In the Divisional round of the playoffs, Marino scored 4 TDs (2 int), and the "great" defense imploded, giving up 44 points in a loss to Buffalo.
1994- Rushing 13th (10th), Defense 17th- Marino came back from a torn achilles tendon to make the Pro Bowl. An average defense and running game will get a great QB to the 2nd round of the playoffs. That's what happened here. Marino had 3 TD (0 int) in a 1 point loss to San Diego. Miami was out-rushed 202-26 (you can't win with that line), and the difference in the game was a safety against Miami RB Bernie Parmalee.
1998- Rushing 24th (30th), Defense 1st- This was Jimmy Johnson's smashmouth team. Unfortunately, J.J. forgot to draft a runningback competent enough to carry the load. It was Marino's penultimate season, and his health/skills were on the decline. Still, he lead them to the Divisional round of the playoffs. Miami got worked by a team J.J. wanted to be like. Marino did not play well (2 int), but he had no help whatsoever. Denver outrushed Miami 250-14, and Miami's defense surrendered 38 points. If Miami had Terrell Davis, and Denver had Karim Abdul-Jabbar, my guess is that Marino, not Elway, is the one riding off into the sunset.
Unfortunately, it is apparent that Marino never had the luxury of having a competent running game and defense in the same season. He was forced to either shoulder the entire burden of the offense by himself, or help his offense score more points than his swiss cheese defense surrendered. That is not a Super Bowl winning formula. After researching this guy's tired article, I submit that they change the name of their website to Cold Hard Football Opinions Cleverly Disguised as Facts Through the Magic of Skewed Statistics.
You're fucking out.
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